Energy analysts suggest that if Donald Trump is re-elected, the oil industry could see favorable changes, although geopolitical tensions, particularly with Iran, may drive up oil prices. Trump’s proposed deregulation of the energy sector is expected to benefit oil companies, but experts warn that international conflicts could lead to price volatility.
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, shared his views on X, stating that Trump’s re-election would likely be “net positive” for the oil industry due to anticipated rollbacks of strict energy regulations. However, De Haan also cautioned that rising oil prices could result from renewed or intensified sanctions on Iran. Such sanctions would disrupt Iran’s oil exports, tightening global supply. “This could be bad for prices,” De Haan noted, pointing out the potential strain on global markets if Iran’s oil is removed.
Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group and a FOX Business contributor, echoed these concerns. He explained that Iran currently exports about 1.7 million barrels of oil per day. If these barrels are taken off the market, other countries will need to fill the gap. Flynn suggested that OPEC could increase production, but if the cartel is unable to make up for the loss, the U.S. may need to step in. However, Flynn pointed out that a lack of new leases and inflation make it harder for U.S. oil companies to increase production. Due to recent policy changes, leasing and development of oil and gas on federal land have slowed, making it more challenging for domestic producers to meet demand.
Data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that U.S. refining capacity peaked at 18.98 million barrels per day in 2020 but has since declined. Although refining capacity has improved slightly in 2023 and 2024, it remains below pre-pandemic levels, currently standing at 18.38 million barrels per day. The closure of a Phillips 66 refinery in February has also contributed to a reduction in production, although the EIA’s annual data has yet to account for this impact.
Flynn warned that removing Iranian oil from the market could cause higher prices and widen the global supply gap. De Haan, however, expressed doubt about Trump’s promise to halve energy prices, calling it unrealistic. Instead, De Haan expects gas prices to remain around $3 per gallon in the summer and possibly dip below $3 by the end of the year. “This seems to be the new norm,” he said. He also noted that simplifying gasoline standards under a second Trump administration could lower costs in the long term.
Currently, the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline is $3.12, down from $3.42 a year ago.
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