For the fourth month in a row, OPEC lowered its global oil demand growth forecast for both this year and next. The organization cited weaker-than-expected consumption data from China and other Asian markets, prompting downward revisions.
OPEC now expects global oil demand to grow by 1.82 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023. This marks a reduction of 107,000 bpd from its previous forecast made last month, according to the cartel’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report.
In 2024, OPEC projects total world oil demand will reach 104.0 million bpd, driven by strong transportation fuel needs and continued solid economic growth in several non-OECD countries.
However, this is the fourth consecutive month that OPEC has cut its demand growth estimates for both the global market and China. The revision follows OPEC’s earlier decision to delay the reversal of production cuts until January 2025, pushing back the initial plan to December 2024.
China’s demand growth forecast was also revised downward. OPEC now expects China’s oil demand to grow by just 450,000 bpd this year, a reduction of 130,000 bpd from the 580,000 bpd growth projected last month. The forecast for 2025 was also adjusted, with OPEC lowering its estimate by 100,000 bpd to 310,000 bpd, compared to the previous forecast of 410,000 bpd.
Despite the downward revisions, OPEC maintained a cautiously optimistic outlook for China in the near term. The report highlighted the country’s strong industrial and export sectors, along with the central government’s efforts to address economic challenges, such as issues in the property market and weak consumer demand.
Additionally, OPEC lowered its global oil demand growth projection for 2025 by 103,000 bpd, bringing the new estimate to 1.54 million bpd, down from 1.64 million bpd previously expected.
These revisions reflect ongoing uncertainties in key markets, particularly in Asia, as OPEC adjusts to shifting demand patterns.
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