Russian crude oil exports fell to a two-month low in the four weeks leading up to November 17, primarily due to a sharp decline in shipments from the country’s Western ports, according to tanker-tracking data from Bloomberg.
During this period, Russia’s crude oil shipments by sea dropped to 3.28 million barrels per day (bpd), a decrease of 150,000 bpd compared to the previous four-week period ending November 10. This marked the largest decline since late July.
In the week ending November 17, exports dropped by as much as 740,000 bpd compared to the prior week. This decline was mainly attributed to a 30% drop in shipments from Russia’s export terminals on the Baltic and Black Seas. Analysts suggest that this reduction could be due to increased refining activity in early November, which left less crude oil available for export.
In contrast, Russia’s crude exports hit a four-month high in October, when refinery maintenance caused a drop in domestic refining, freeing up more crude for shipment abroad. At that time, Russian exports averaged 3.47 million bpd in the four weeks leading to October 20, up by 140,000 bpd from the previous four-week period.
However, Russia’s crude exports may soon rise again, as some refineries are facing significant losses due to a gasoline export ban, which is in effect until December 31, 2024. Reports indicate that Russian refineries are cutting back on production and some may even shut down operations due to financial struggles, exacerbated by sanctions, rising oil prices, and ongoing drone attacks from Ukraine.
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