China is expected to import the highest amount of thermal coal since at least 2017 this month, driven by rising electricity demand due to colder weather.
According to commodity analysts Kpler, cited by Reuters columnist Clyde Russell, China’s thermal coal imports are projected to reach 37.5 million metric tons in November. This marks a significant increase from the 32.12 million tons imported in October and would be the largest volume since Kpler began tracking the data in 2017.
In addition to importing coal, China is boosting its domestic coal production to ensure a steady supply. This increase in domestic output has helped stabilize global coal prices, particularly limiting price hikes for seaborne coal from Indonesia and Australia, the world’s two largest coal exporters. Despite the record-high imports, thermal coal prices have not surged.
Data from the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics revealed that China’s coal output rose by 4.6% in October compared to the previous year, reaching 410 million tons. Coal imports also saw a significant jump, increasing by 28.5% from October 2023.
China has been increasing thermal power generation, mostly from coal, since autumn began, as hydropower production has decreased. In October, thermal power generation rose by 1.8% year-on-year, while hydropower generation fell sharply by 14.9%, marking the second consecutive month of decline.
Although China has been expanding renewable energy sources in recent years, coal still plays a central role in the country’s power generation. Coal accounts for roughly 60% of China’s electricity, and its demand remains strong. The drop in hydropower output, especially in September, has further boosted the reliance on thermal coal to meet growing electricity needs.
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