For the first time this year, coal’s share of China’s electricity generation has fallen below 60%. While some view this as a positive step for the country’s energy transition, experts warn that this shift is likely temporary.
According to Reuters, coal accounted for 58.7% of China’s electricity generation from January to October, down from 61.6% during the same period last year and 61.8% in 2022. This decrease in coal’s share has been seen as a victory for renewable energy sectors like wind and solar, and by extension, the global push for cleaner energy.
However, these figures present a misleading picture when viewed in isolation. While coal’s percentage share has declined, the total amount of coal-generated electricity in China has actually risen. From January to October this year, China’s coal power generation reached an all-time high of 4,838 terawatt-hours (TWh), up from 4,724 TWh during the same period in 2023.
Experts, including those from transition advocacy group Ember, argue that these figures highlight a crucial issue: “China accounts for roughly 40% of global power emissions from fossil fuels. If coal use in China’s power production doesn’t decrease, global pollution trends will remain hard to reverse.”
Despite this, the data suggests that China’s coal consumption is not on a downward trajectory. Instead, it indicates that electricity demand in the country is rising. To meet this growing demand, China has utilized all available energy sources. The temporary dip in coal’s share is largely due to the availability of natural gas and hydropower, which have filled in the gaps when solar and wind generation is lower, especially in winter.
The shift in coal’s share is expected to reverse soon. As winter approaches, electricity demand will increase, particularly in northern China, where cold temperatures drive higher consumption. China’s government is keen to avoid a repeat of the power shortages that occurred in 2014, and it is prepared to take extreme measures to ensure sufficient energy supply.
Interestingly, Reuters’ Gavin Maguire suggests that China could still manage to keep coal’s share below 60% for the year, even with increased demand. This could be achieved by relying on plentiful wind energy and curbing industrial activity. However, this would require favorable weather conditions and lower-than-expected industrial output—an unlikely combination.
This scenario highlights a concern raised by critics of the energy transition: that strict emissions controls could slow economic growth and lead to deindustrialization. In Europe, countries like Germany and the UK have experienced such effects. In Germany, major industrial companies are planning significant layoffs and relocating businesses, while in the UK, skyrocketing energy costs have triggered widespread protests and a cost-of-living crisis.
China is closely monitoring these developments. The government has repeatedly emphasized its commitment to energy security through a diverse mix of energy sources. As a result, celebrating a temporary dip in coal’s share of China’s electricity generation might be premature. With coal consumption still rising in absolute terms and global coal demand projected to remain stable until at least 2030, China’s energy transition may be a longer and more complex process than many hope.
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