Russia’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to Asia are projected to experience only slight declines in 2024 compared to last year, as major Asian buyers continue to purchase Russian energy despite Western sanctions.
The impact of Western sanctions has been less significant in Asia, where countries like China maintain their oil and gas imports from Russia at prices they deem favorable. Beijing has dismissed U.S. sanctions as unilateral and continues to engage in energy trade with Russia.
In 2024, Asia is expected to import around 3.22 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil from Russia, a 5.6% decrease from the 3.41 million bpd imported in 2023, according to data from commodity analysts Kpler, cited by Reuters columnist Clyde Russell.
Similarly, Russian LNG imports to Asia are projected to drop by about 1.6% this year, with volumes expected to reach approximately 14.93 million tons in 2024, based on Kpler’s data.
While some countries, like U.S. ally South Korea, have reduced their crude oil imports from Russia, Japan continues to purchase LNG from the Sakhalin-2 project. Japan’s continued involvement in the Russia-led LNG venture is largely due to its stake in the project and its reliance on Russian LNG for energy security.
China remains the largest buyer of Russian LNG in Asia. The country’s imports are expected to remain largely unchanged this year, with an estimated 6.65 million tons of LNG set to be imported, compared to 6.63 million tons in 2023.
The 5.6% drop in Asian imports of Russian crude oil is mainly driven by a decline in China’s imports, with an estimated reduction of around 100,000 bpd, according to Kpler data. This decrease is also attributed to weaker overall crude imports by China this year.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s oil exports to Asia have increased, while Russia’s crude oil sales to the region have fallen, mainly due to reduced purchases from China and India, two of Russia’s key markets.
Related Topics: