California drivers may face significantly higher gas prices next year after the state’s environmental agency approved new fuel standards aimed at reducing fossil fuel use and tackling air pollution. On Friday, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) voted to amend its Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) program, a decision that could drive up fuel costs for consumers.
Last year, CARB issued a report predicting the new fuel standards would raise gas prices by 47 cents per gallon by 2025. However, a recent study by the University of Pennsylvania’s Kleinman Center for Energy Policy suggests that the price increase could be much higher. According to the report, fuel prices could rise by 65 cents per gallon in 2025, 85 cents by 2030, and nearly $1.50 by 2035.
CARB has acknowledged that its initial cost projections were uncertain. “Any estimate of cost from the LCFS regulatory proposal is inherently uncertain,” said CARB staff, noting the difficulty in predicting future outcomes.
Steve Cliff, CARB’s executive officer, clarified that the board’s initial estimate of a 47-cent price increase was not meant as a definitive forecast. “That’s not a projection of prices at the pump,” Cliff explained to reporters.
Currently, California has some of the highest gas prices in the U.S. As of Monday, the average price for regular gasoline in the state was $4.52 per gallon, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA). This is $1.44 higher than the national average.
The LCFS, originally introduced in 2007 by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, aimed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution from transportation fuels by 20% by 2030. Under the updated regulation, the state now plans to increase the reduction target to 30% by 2030 and 90% by 2045.
Opponents, particularly Republican lawmakers, argue that the new fuel standards will place an undue financial burden on Californians. State Rep. Tom Lackey, a Republican, criticized the proposal during the public-comment period. “We’re the hard-working men and women of California. We drive long hours to work to support our families. This measure will cause financial pain,” Lackey said.
The board’s vote followed a marathon 12-hour hearing, where CARB members voted 12-2 in favor of updating the LCFS program. Of CARB’s 14 voting members, all but two were appointed by Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom.
Ahead of the vote, California Republicans tried to delay the decision by submitting a petition with nearly 13,000 signatures from concerned residents. The Fresno City Council also voted unanimously to postpone the vote, but CARB proceeded with its decision.
State Senate Minority Leader Brian Jones criticized the move, calling it “coercive class warfare” and accusing the Newsom administration of pushing for electric vehicles before they are affordable or supported by sufficient charging infrastructure. “This will price-gouge the public on gas and force us into electric vehicles,” Jones said in a statement. “I, along with thousands of Californians, urge the board to vote this down.”
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