OPEC has reduced its oil demand growth forecasts for both 2024 and 2025 for the fifth consecutive month, with the latest revision marking the most significant cut. The organization now projects a daily demand growth of 1.6 million barrels in 2024, a reduction of 210,000 barrels per day. This is 27% lower than its initial forecast from July, according to Bloomberg.
The OPEC Secretariat stated that the downward revision reflects “recently received bearish data,” particularly for the third quarter. This includes lower demand estimates for regions such as OECD Americas and OECD Asia Pacific.
Various energy agencies have offered differing forecasts for global oil demand growth. Last month, the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) released its latest oil market report. Following this, Standard Chartered calculated that global oil demand in September reached 103.012 million barrels per day (mb/d), marking the fourth consecutive month demand exceeded 103 mb/d. Year-on-year demand growth for September was 1.136 mb/d, slightly below the year-to-date average of 1.332 mb/d but an improvement over August, when growth was just 0.631 mb/d. Standard Chartered emphasized that while oil demand itself has remained high, the rate of growth has slowed compared to the rapid recovery following the pandemic.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has been among the most cautious analysts, predicting that global demand for fossil fuels will stop growing later this decade. The IEA expects oil and LNG supplies to continue increasing, but it forecasts that this shift will benefit consumers as electricity prices fall, driven by the rising role of renewable energy sources.
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol highlighted that the global energy market is expected to undergo significant changes in the second half of the decade. Unless disrupted by major geopolitical conflicts, he said, oil and gas prices will likely face substantial downward pressure due to easing market conditions.
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