OPEC+ is worried that U.S. oil production could increase significantly if Donald Trump returns to the White House, potentially damaging the group’s market share and hindering its efforts to stabilize oil prices, according to delegates from the group.
OPEC+ currently produces around half of the world’s oil supply. Earlier this month, it delayed plans to raise output until April 2025, extending some of its production cuts until 2026. These moves were made in response to weak demand and growing production from the U.S. and other non-OPEC countries.
The organization has often underestimated the growth of U.S. oil output, particularly since the shale oil boom, which has helped the U.S. become the world’s largest oil producer. The U.S. now supplies around 20% of the world’s oil.
Some OPEC+ delegates believe U.S. production could increase even further if Trump returns to office. The former president’s campaign focused heavily on the economy and lowering living costs, and his team has outlined plans to deregulate the energy sector, which could boost oil production.
“I think a return of Trump would benefit the oil industry, with less strict environmental policies,” said a delegate from an OPEC+ member country allied with the U.S. “But we may see higher production in the U.S., which would not be good for us.”
OPEC declined to comment on the issue.
An increase in U.S. oil output could complicate OPEC+’s plans to raise production in April 2025 without causing a drop in prices. Lower prices would harm OPEC+ countries, which rely heavily on oil revenues.
Trump’s plans to increase U.S. oil production are driven by his goal to reduce energy costs and inflation. However, this creates a tricky situation for both OPEC+ and the U.S., as rising U.S. production could undermine the group’s influence, said Richard Bronze, head of geopolitics at Energy Aspects.
U.S. Oil Output to Rise in 2025
OPEC+ is currently holding back 5.85 million barrels per day (bpd) of output capacity due to a series of cuts that started in 2022. During 2022-2024, U.S. oil output rose by 11% to 21.6 million bpd, according to OPEC’s figures. Just 11 years ago, the U.S. produced about 10 million bpd.
Today, OPEC+ accounts for 48% of global oil supply, down from over 55% when the group was formed in 2016, based on figures from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
OPEC+’s production cuts in 2016 and 2020 helped the U.S. shale industry grow and turned the country into a leading oil exporter, according to Igor Sechin, head of Russia’s Rosneft oil company.
One OPEC+ source noted that while Trump’s policies could stimulate oil demand, the potential rise in U.S. supply remains a concern. “The main threat to OPEC+ is increased U.S. oil production under Trump, which would reduce the country’s reliance on imported oil and boost exports,” the source said.
OPEC recently predicted that U.S. oil production will rise by 2.3% next year and lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth. Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB, said, “OPEC is acknowledging that the U.S. will take a bigger share of the market.”
The IEA also expects U.S. output to grow by 3.5% next year, a faster rate than OPEC’s projections.
Concerns About U.S. Production Growth Under Trump
Some industry experts remain skeptical about the extent to which U.S. production will increase under Trump. Shale producers are focused on maintaining financial discipline and will only increase output if it is profitable, according to the head of Exxon’s upstream division.
New oilfields take years to develop, so even if Trump delivers on promises to ease drilling regulations, it will take time to see a significant impact on production. “The U.S. has no spare capacity,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and former White House official. “How much the U.S. will drill depends more on decisions made in Vienna than in Washington.”