Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the U.S. and its NATO allies have been exploring new sources of natural gas to reduce Europe’s reliance on Russian energy. This strategy is becoming more urgent as the U.S. prepares for Donald Trump’s second presidential term, with a focus on weakening Russia’s influence in Europe. It also ties into broader efforts to undermine Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” in the Middle East and counter China’s growing influence globally.
The need to phase out Russian gas exports is particularly pressing due to Europe’s historical dependency on these supplies. Russia used its vast energy resources to solidify control over former Soviet states and to influence European Union (EU) countries, especially Germany. This strategy enabled Russia to manipulate European politics, notably undermining NATO’s core doctrine of collective defense. Despite Russian actions, including the invasions of Georgia in 2008 and Crimea in 2014, the West failed to take significant action due to the energy leverage Russia held.
However, the failure of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 to achieve quick victory gave the U.S. and NATO new opportunities to act. One of the main goals is to sever Russia’s oil and gas revenues, which continue to fund its war efforts. The U.S. has been working to persuade Germany and other European nations to reduce their dependence on Russian energy and to diversify their energy supplies. This effort has been aided by liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments, particularly from Qatar, as well as new supplies from other sources aligned with U.S. and NATO interests. A key area of focus is the Eastern Mediterranean, with countries like Egypt and Israel playing central roles in this strategy.
Egypt’s Growing Role in the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Market
Egypt has emerged as a key player in the Eastern Mediterranean gas market. The country holds substantial natural gas reserves, conservatively estimated at 1.8 trillion cubic meters (Tcm), although some experts believe the actual figure could be higher. Egypt is also the only country in the region with operational LNG export facilities, making it a strategic hub for energy exports. Its location further enhances its importance, as it controls the Suez Canal, a vital global shipping chokepoint through which about 10% of the world’s oil and LNG passes.
Additionally, Egypt oversees the Suez-Mediterranean Pipeline, which serves as an alternative route for transporting oil from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean. The Suez Canal’s significance to global energy markets is amplified by the fact that it is one of the few major transit points not controlled by China. Despite recent currency challenges linked to the influx of foreign investment, Egypt remains a key player in the global energy landscape.
Cyprus Joins the Search for Energy Alternatives
Meanwhile, Cyprus, another key country in the Eastern Mediterranean, is drawing increasing attention from Western energy companies. The island is considering a new round of licensing for offshore gas exploration, with estimates suggesting there are around 0.45 Tcm of untapped reserves. However, energy security experts believe the actual reserves could be much larger. Cyprus is already home to 13 offshore blocks, 10 of which are under license to major Western energy companies, including ExxonMobil, Chevron, TotalEnergies, and Eni.
Cyprus’s Energy Minister George Papanastasiou recently announced that the country may offer new exploration blocks, including those that existing operators may choose to relinquish. ExxonMobil, which won its initial exploration licenses in 2017, has already made significant discoveries in the region. The company’s vice president for global exploration, John Ardill, highlighted the vast potential for gas exploration around the island, with ExxonMobil planning to drill its first well in mid-January 2025.
ExxonMobil’s exploration efforts in Cyprus have already yielded promising results. In 2019, the company made a major find at the Glaucus well and has since discovered additional potential sites, including the Pegasus and Electra wells. The Electra site, located near Glaucus, holds promise due to its proximity to other significant discoveries, such as the Cronos field, which is being developed by Eni and TotalEnergies.
Conclusion
As the U.S. and NATO push for greater energy independence from Russia, the Eastern Mediterranean is becoming an increasingly vital region for securing alternative gas supplies. Egypt and Cyprus are at the forefront of this effort, with major Western energy firms making substantial investments in both countries. This shift in energy strategy is part of a broader geopolitical move to weaken Russia’s influence in Europe and counter global challenges from China and Iran.
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