As the global energy market looks ahead to 2025, all eyes are on India for insights into crude oil demand growth, especially with China’s consumption showing signs of stagnation.
In 2024, India emerged as a key driver of global oil consumption. The International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) clashed over their demand growth forecasts, with the IEA predicting an increase of less than 1 million barrels per day (bpd), while OPEC projected a growth closer to 2 million bpd. Despite these differing views, India is expected to play a significant role in global demand growth, regardless of the final 2024 data.
Looking ahead, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts that India will surpass China to account for a quarter of global oil demand growth in 2025. This development is notable, though not unexpected, given China’s economic slowdown and market shifts, coupled with India’s stronger economic performance.
From 1998 to 2023, China consistently outpaced India in oil consumption growth. However, in 2025, India is set to account for 25% of the global increase in oil consumption, according to the EIA’s forecast, which projects a global demand growth of 1.3 million bpd for that year.
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