China’s coal demand and production are expected to keep rising in 2025, with coal remaining a key component of the country’s energy system, according to the China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association.
The association predicts that coal production will increase by around 1.5% in 2025, marking the ninth consecutive year of growth. At the same time, coal demand is expected to rise by about 1%, driven by higher consumption in the power and chemicals sectors.
With rising domestic production and sufficient coal inventories, coal prices are likely to stay low. China’s strong coal production is outpacing demand, which may further reduce coal prices. Industry officials have noted that an oversupply of coal is impacting the market, with excess inventories putting downward pressure on prices. “Power plants are dumping stockpiles due to excess supply,” said Han Lei, an analyst from the association.
Despite rapid growth in renewable energy capacity, thermal power generation, mainly from coal-fired plants, grew by 1.9% from January to November compared to the previous year. This trend suggests that coal and thermal power generation will continue to rise, even as China expands its renewable energy sources.
Although coal’s share of China’s power generation has been declining due to the growth of renewables, it still accounts for about 60% of the country’s electricity. Even with a rise in hydropower earlier this year, coal’s dominance in China’s energy mix remains significant.
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