The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has kept its forecasts for 2025 renewable diesel, biodiesel, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production unchanged in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), released on January 14.
According to the EIA, renewable diesel production is expected to average 230,000 barrels per day in 2025, maintaining the previous December forecast. The agency predicts this will increase to 250,000 barrels per day by 2026, up from an average of 210,000 barrels per day in 2024.
Net imports of renewable diesel are projected to average 20,000 barrels per day in 2025, the same as the previous outlook. However, net imports in 2024 averaged 30,000 barrels per day, lower than the December forecast of 40,000 barrels per day. For 2026, net imports are expected to remain at 20,000 barrels per day.
The EIA also kept its consumption forecasts for renewable diesel steady, predicting an average of 230,000 barrels per day in 2024 and 240,000 barrels per day in 2025, with an increase to 270,000 barrels per day in 2026.
For biodiesel, the EIA maintained its production outlook of 110,000 barrels per day for both 2024 and 2025. However, production is expected to decrease to 100,000 barrels per day in 2026.
Biodiesel net imports averaged 10,000 barrels per day in 2024, unchanged from the December forecast. The EIA expects biodiesel exports to drop to near zero barrels per day in 2025 and 2026. Biodiesel consumption averaged 120,000 barrels per day in 2024 but is expected to fall to 100,000 barrels per day in 2025 and remain at that level through 2026.
The EIA also maintained its forecast for “other biofuels,” including renewable heating oil, renewable jet fuel (SAF), and emerging biofuels, which are expected to average 40,000 barrels per day in 2025. This outlook remains unchanged from the previous month. In 2024, production of these biofuels averaged 20,000 barrels per day and is projected to reach 50,000 barrels per day by 2026.
Net imports of “other biofuels” are forecast to remain at zero in 2025 and 2026, unchanged from 2024. Consumption of these biofuels was estimated at 20,000 barrels per day in 2024 and is expected to increase to 40,000 barrels per day in 2025, with further growth to 50,000 barrels per day in 2026.
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