Supertanker rates have seen a dramatic increase following the U.S. sanctions on Russian oil exports and its shadow fleet. Rates for very large crude carriers (VLCCs), which can transport up to 2 million barrels of crude oil, doubled within just one week.
According to data from the Baltic Exchange compiled by Bloomberg, VLCC rates on the Middle East-to-China route surged by 112%, reaching $57,589 per day. Similarly, rates for tankers moving from the U.S. Gulf Coast to China increased by 102%, and rates for the West Africa-to-China route jumped by 90%.
The surge came after the U.S. imposed the harshest sanctions on Russian oil exports to date on January 10. These sanctions targeted two major Russian oil companies, Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, as well as 183 vessels, oil traders, service providers, insurance companies, and energy officials.
A significant portion of the vessels and tankers involved in transporting Russian oil from the Arctic and Far East to Asia are now under sanction. This includes roughly one-fourth of Russia’s shadow fleet, which has compounded the tanker shortage.
With fewer tankers available, global fleet capacity has become strained. While the number of tanker journeys has remained relatively stable, the availability of tankers has sharply declined, creating stiff competition for available vessels, Bloomberg reports.
Mary Melton, a freight analyst at Vortexa, predicts a further tightening of fleet capacity for Russian oil exports. The logistical challenges are expected to grow as the sanctions continue to impact the availability of tankers.
The ongoing sanctions, especially if President Trump intensifies actions against Iranian oil exports, could further drive up global tanker rates. This would also reduce the shadow fleet, further limiting supply in the global market.
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