One of President Donald Trump’s early actions after taking office was to push for increased oil production from OPEC to help lower energy prices. Trump had promised Americans cheaper energy, hoping that resolving the Ukraine conflict would contribute to this goal. However, his appeal to OPEC went unanswered, marking what could be his first major political setback in office.
Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Trump expressed surprise that OPEC had not acted to lower oil prices before the November U.S. elections. “You’ve got to bring down the oil price,” he said. “That will end that war. You could end that war.”
While this may sound plausible, experts question whether this argument holds up, pointing to the growing resilience of the Russian economy. In fact, the World Bank’s 2024 report ranked Russia as a high-income country for the first time since 2015, contradicting claims that sanctions have devastated its economy.
Trump’s request for OPEC to increase production to lower oil prices faces other significant challenges. While Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is considered an ally of Trump, his priority is funding his Vision 2030 economic plan, which depends on higher oil prices. This strategy includes maintaining strong ties with Russia, a key partner in the OPEC+ alliance.
Moreover, U.S. oil producers have no interest in seeing prices fall. They are comfortable with the current price levels and would even welcome higher prices. Trump’s conflicting goals—promoting cheaper energy while supporting increased U.S. oil production—directly clash with OPEC’s objectives. Despite his personal relationship with the Crown Prince, Trump’s political influence doesn’t sway the oil cartel, which is driven by market forces rather than political ties.
Amena Bakr, head of Middle East Energy and OPEC research at Kpler, explained in a recent Semafor analysis that OPEC is unlikely to respond to Trump’s requests because it focuses on market management, not political considerations. According to Bakr, OPEC’s unity is also critical, and member countries are reluctant to appear as though they are bowing to Trump, especially if it risks internal fractures or undermines their independence.
OPEC’s stance is clear: it is not going to prioritize Trump’s demands. This may eventually prompt Trump to stop making requests, but it is unlikely to change OPEC’s approach. In the meantime, Trump’s broader strategy on Iran, which aims to reduce Iran’s oil exports to zero, further complicates the relationship. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that OPEC has enough spare capacity to replace Iranian oil, but as history has shown, OPEC only acts when it sees fit.
OPEC’s actions indicate its unwillingness to simply follow external agendas. The group will only adjust production if it aligns with its own interests, primarily maintaining favorable price conditions. Recent moves, such as dropping the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) from its secondary source list for oil production data, highlight OPEC’s growing distance from U.S. influence. A former OPEC official suggested that the EIA’s data was increasingly seen as too closely tied to the U.S. government.
In the future, OPEC seems more inclined to trust independent analysts like Kpler and OilX over the U.S. government’s energy data.
For Trump, this complicated relationship with OPEC will likely continue throughout his second term. Acknowledging these realities early on could help the U.S. build a more balanced relationship with the oil cartel moving forward.
Related Topics:
- Oil Prices Fall Following Gaza Ceasefire Deal and Higher OPEC Production Data
- OPEC Forecasts Strong Oil Demand Growth for 2025 and 2026
- Iraq’s Major Oil Discovery Faces OPEC Restrictions