China’s 10% tariff on U.S. crude oil imports could lower American crude exports in 2025, reversing the record highs of the past two years, analysts told Reuters.
The tariffs came into play on the same day that the U.S. imposed a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports. In response, China set retaliatory tariffs, including a 10% levy on U.S. crude oil and a 15% tariff on LNG.
In 2024, U.S. crude made up about 5% of China’s total crude oil imports. Chinese refiners brought in roughly 166,000 barrels per day (bpd) of U.S. crude, according to vessel-tracking data from Kpler.
Experts expect China to reduce or completely stop importing U.S. crude due to the new tariff. This reduction could lower overall global demand for American oil, Kpler analysts noted.
In 2023, U.S. crude exports reached a record high of over 4 million bpd, with exports remaining steady in 2024. Kpler’s data shows a slight increase in exports last year, up by just 24,000 bpd to an average of 3.8 million bpd.
Kpler analyst Matt Smith told Reuters that U.S. crude exports may be nearing their peak. “China’s retaliatory tariffs could speed up this decline,” he said.
Data from Vortexa showed that U.S. seaborne exports averaged 3.9 million bpd in 2024, down from 4 million bpd in 2023. Vortexa’s Senior Oil Market Analyst, Rohit Rathod, noted that U.S. crude exports began to stagnate in the latter half of 2024, with signs of a slowdown.
Looking ahead, U.S. crude exports could drop to 3.6 million bpd in 2025, especially if the Trump Administration enacts tariffs on Mexico and Canada—currently on hold until March 4. Additionally, more U.S. medium sour crude, like Mars and Southern Green Canyon, could stay in the domestic market, according to Rathod.
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