Despite former President Trump’s push to boost U.S. energy production, oil producers in the Permian Basin are slowing down their pace. At a Houston conference this week, energy executives emphasized that while production continues to grow, it is at a much slower rate than in the past decade.
In 2025, output from the Permian is expected to increase by 250,000 to 300,000 barrels per day (bpd), a significant drop from last year’s 380,000-bpd rise. This 25% slowdown is not solely due to market conditions; it is a deliberate choice.
On Thursday, Chevron’s Barbara Harrison told Reuters, “We still expect to see growth in the Permian, but we expect to see that moderated.” This shift marks a move away from the “drill, baby, drill” mentality of the past. Instead of prioritizing high volumes, companies are focusing on controlling costs and delivering better returns for investors.
Despite the U.S. remaining the world’s top oil producer at 13.2 million bpd, the new industry focus is on capital discipline. Coterra Energy’s Shannon Flowers pointed out the irony, saying, “The Trump administration wants lower energy prices. That’s not necessarily good for producers.”
Refiners, such as Delek, are preparing for potential supply issues as producers hold back. Additionally, uncertainty is growing with the looming threat of tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports.
In short, oil executives agree that the era of rapid U.S. shale expansion is over. The industry is now prioritizing financial discipline while balancing supply growth. While Trump may advocate for a surge in production, Wall Street is focused on profits, and for now, it’s winning.
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