Russian gas deliveries to Europe through the TurkStream pipeline set a new record last week, according to data from the European Network of Gas Transmission System Operators (ENTSOG). The figures, reported by the state-run TASS news agency, show that between February 3 and 9, gas flow through the Strandzha-2 compressor station on the Turkish-Bulgarian border exceeded 390 million cubic meters (mcm), marking the highest weekly delivery since the pipeline began operations in January 2020. This surpassed the previous record of 376 mcm set in mid-January.
The pipeline also set a daily record on February 5, peaking at 56.7 mcm, with the flow reaching new highs throughout the week.
Since Ukraine halted its transit of Russian gas to Europe on January 1, TurkStream has become the sole remaining route for delivering Russian gas to European markets. Last year, Ukraine transported about 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of Russian gas to the EU, a supply now cut off, putting pressure on Europe to secure alternative sources.
In addition to supply disruptions, a cold winter has drained EU gas reserves faster than expected, pushing Europe to find an extra 10 bcm of gas to meet demand for heating and industry. This shortage has already led to a rise in gas prices, prompting discussions about restarting the damaged Nord Stream pipelines. One of the four strands of these pipelines, which was not affected by explosions in September 2022, still contains technical gas and could potentially be restarted, offering a capacity of 25 bcm—the amount Europe now needs.
Since the start of the heating season, the EU has already drawn down more than half of its winter fuel reserves, totaling 53.2 bcm. The gas withdrawal season is set to end on March 31, 2024, with a record 58.44% of reserves still intact.
Rising Gas Prices and Tightened Supply
This week, gas prices hit a two-year high, surpassing $620 per thousand cubic meters as Europe prepares for more freezing weather. Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) reported that EU gas reserves have dipped below 50%, with February’s withdrawal rate nearly 60% higher than in 2024.
The gas shortage is compounded by increased demand in Asia, as the region stockpiles gas ahead of potential tariffs. Goldman Sachs has adjusted its 2025 price forecast for Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas, now projecting prices to reach $580 per kcm (€50 per megawatt-hour), up from a previous estimate of $464 per kcm (€40 per MWh).
In a recent report, Goldman Sachs analysts noted that both weather-driven demand and disappointing supply have significantly tightened Europe’s gas balance. The bank also predicts Europe will need to import more liquefied natural gas (LNG) to meet inventories ahead of next winter.
However, Goldman Sachs also sees a potential drop in prices if the war in Ukraine ends and Russian gas flows to Europe resume. If Ukrainian transit were restored to pre-war levels, TTF prices for summer 2025 could fall to between $232 per kcm (€20 per MWh) and $349 per kcm (€30 per MWh).
TurkStream Pipeline Monthly and Annual Records
The TurkStream pipeline, which transports Russian gas to Turkey and southeastern Europe via the Black Sea, reached a monthly record of 1.56 bcm in January, according to ENTSOG data. Total transportation via the pipeline increased by 23% in 2024 compared to the previous year, reaching 16.7 bcm. Hungary, one of the largest recipients of TurkStream gas, received a record 7.6 bcm.
On January 27, Hungary received assurances from Brussels that the EU would work to restore Ukrainian gas transit, prevent disruptions to Russian oil deliveries through the Druzhba pipeline, and protect TurkStream from attacks. In exchange, Hungary agreed to extend EU sanctions on Russia for an additional six months.
Meanwhile, talks are underway between Azerbaijan and Ukraine to connect gas fields in Azerbaijan to Europe via Ukraine’s pipeline network, potentially boosting supplies.
Outlook for Russian Gas Exports
In 2025, Gazprom plans to export 38 bcm of gas to China, 25 bcm to Turkey, and 15 bcm to Europe via TurkStream. The 15 bcm lost due to the suspension of Ukrainian transit would have accounted for about 16% of Gazprom’s European exports—a noticeable but not critical volume.
Related Topics:
- Why Natural Gas is Preferred Over Other Fuels: A Comprehensive Look
- How Much Natural Gas Does a Whole House Generator Use?
- Natural Gas Storage Draw of -258 Bcf from EIA Surpasses Estimates