In its latest short-term energy outlook (STEO) released on February 11, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasted a decline in the average price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil for 2025 and 2026.
The EIA projects that the WTI spot price will average $70.62 per barrel in 2025, followed by $62.46 per barrel in 2026. This is a decrease from the 2024 average of $76.60 per barrel, as noted in the report.
In the previous January STEO, the EIA made similar predictions, estimating the 2025 average at $70.31 per barrel and 2026 at $62.46 per barrel, with the 2024 price also at $76.60 per barrel.
The February STEO further detailed its quarterly projections. It predicts a price of $73.62 per barrel in Q1 2025, with prices gradually decreasing throughout the year, reaching $64.97 per barrel in Q1 2025. By the end of 2026, the WTI price is expected to drop to $60 per barrel.
In comparison, the January STEO set the Q1 2025 price at $72.34 per barrel, with a similar downward trend throughout the quarters, ending the year at $60 per barrel in Q4 2026.
Other forecasts differ from the EIA’s outlook. On February 14, J.P. Morgan’s commodities research team forecasted a WTI crude price of $69 per barrel in 2025 and $57 per barrel in 2026. Their quarterly estimates range from $70 per barrel in Q1 2025 to $53 per barrel in Q4 2026.
Meanwhile, Standard Chartered Bank expects higher prices, predicting an average of $79 per barrel in Q1 2025, with a slight rise to $90 per barrel in 2026. Their projections suggest that the price will peak in Q4 2025 at $90 per barrel.
BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, forecasted a 2025 average WTI price of $73 per barrel in its February 14 report. On the other hand, Morningstar DBRS’s base case scenario anticipates a lower average of $65 per barrel for 2025 and $60 per barrel in 2026. Their “low price” scenario predicts an even sharper decline, with prices averaging $45 per barrel over the next two years.
In the latest update from Stratas Advisors on February 19, WTI was priced at $70.57 per barrel, down slightly from the previous week’s close of $71.06 per barrel.
The differing forecasts reflect varying views on supply-demand dynamics, global economic conditions, and geopolitical factors, making the future of oil prices uncertain.
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