The U.S. tariff threat has prompted Canadian policymakers to reconsider abandoning pipeline projects that could have helped diversify the country’s oil and gas exports. Over the past decade, Canada’s federal and provincial governments may have moved too quickly to scrap the proposed Alberta-to-coast pipelines, which could have provided new markets for Canadian oil.
Energy exports are widely seen as Canada’s strongest bargaining chip in a trade dispute with the U.S. Canada currently supplies about 60% of all U.S. oil imports, with Alberta alone contributing 56%—more than Mexico, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq combined, according to Alberta Premier Danielle Smith.
However, Canada’s heavy reliance on the U.S. for oil exports has reignited discussions about reviving pipeline projects that were previously abandoned. These projects could open access to new markets.
In the past decade, only one pipeline—the Trans Mountain Expansion Project—has been completed. After being abandoned by Kinder Morgan, the Canadian government purchased the project and tripled the pipeline’s capacity from 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 890,000 bpd. The pipeline now transports crude from Alberta’s oil sands to British Columbia.
Other pipeline projects, such as Energy East and Northern Gateway, remain only in discussions. These proposals would have connected Alberta’s oil to markets on Canada’s east and west coasts, respectively. Energy East was meant to deliver oil from Alberta to Ontario and Quebec, while Northern Gateway would have run from northern Alberta to Kitimat on British Columbia’s north coast. Both projects were scrapped between 2016 and 2017 when Canada’s federal government, under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, rejected oil and gas projects on environmental grounds. Opposition from green activists in provinces outside of Alberta also contributed to the demise of these pipelines.
With trade tensions rising once again, some politicians and industry leaders believe the conversation around pipelines is changing. Canada’s Industry Minister, François-Philippe Champagne, recently suggested that the country may need an Alberta-to-East Coast pipeline. “Things have changed … you cannot be in the past,” Champagne told CTV on February 9. “We cannot be dependent,” he added.
Public opinion on Alberta-to-coast pipelines has shifted in recent years. A poll conducted by the Angus Reid Institute found that support for reviving Energy East has increased from 58% in 2019 to 65%. Support in Quebec has also risen, from 33% to 47%. The Northern Gateway project also enjoys majority support, with 55% of British Columbians in favor. Overall, 63% of Canadians believe expanding oil and gas pipeline capacity would benefit the economy.
Furthermore, Canadians are now more focused on economic growth when it comes to energy policy, with a noticeable shift away from prioritizing environmental concerns, according to a separate Angus Reid poll.
Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson echoed the call for a West-East pipeline, acknowledging that the U.S. tariff threats have exposed weaknesses in Canada’s energy infrastructure. “There are some vulnerabilities that we did not actually believe existed. We should be reflecting on the vulnerabilities and deciding whether there are some things we should do,” Wilkinson said.
Despite this shift in political and public opinion, pipeline companies remain cautious. Enbridge, which had its Northern Gateway project scrapped, has emphasized the need for significant changes to Canada’s regulatory environment before they would consider restarting any pipeline plans. “We would need to see real legislative change at the federal and provincial government level,” said Enbridge President and CEO Greg Ebel. He added that tangible changes in laws and regulations are necessary to attract the capital needed for such projects.
While Canadian policymakers have expressed support for the idea of reviving pipeline projects, Enbridge stresses that actions speak louder than words. The company has indicated that it would require meaningful regulatory changes and a clear commitment to infrastructure projects being considered in the national interest before moving forward.
Ultimately, while the tariff threat has sparked new conversations about Canada’s energy infrastructure, the path forward for new pipeline projects remains uncertain.
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