Goldman Sachs has stated that a potential easing of sanctions on Russia due to a ceasefire or peace agreement in Ukraine will not significantly increase Russia’s oil supply to the global market.
As talks between the U.S. and Russia about Ukraine and possible economic rapprochement progress, analysts are considering the possibility that sanctions on Russian oil exports could be lifted. However, Goldman Sachs believes Russia’s oil output is limited by its self-imposed quota under the OPEC+ production deal, rather than by sanctions.
In a note released Wednesday, Goldman Sachs analysts explained that Russia’s crude oil production is restricted by its OPEC+ target of 9 million barrels per day, not by current sanctions, which mainly affect where Russian oil can be exported, not the volume.
Earlier this week, Bank of America suggested that a deal in Ukraine could lead to sanctions relief, which might lower oil prices by $5 to $10 per barrel for Brent crude. Analysts at Bank of America also mentioned that easing sanctions could increase the global diesel supply from Russia, potentially reducing refining margins.
Speculation is rising that the OPEC+ group might delay plans to ease production cuts, initially scheduled for April, due to geopolitical uncertainty. Despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s calls for lower oil prices, OPEC+ is reportedly considering postponing its supply increase. However, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak clarified on Monday that OPEC+ has not discussed delaying the planned rise in oil supply.
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