Recently, a relatively unknown Chinese company, DeepSeek, made waves in the internet tech sector by offering a similar product to its established competitors—at a fraction of the cost. While the tech giants dismissed the new player, the market did experience a brief period of panic. However, in the energy sector, changes in technology tend to take longer. Nevertheless, signs of change are evident, particularly with two recent developments.
The first comes from the Ivanpah solar thermal generator in California’s Mojave Desert. Originally approved for construction in 2010 and completed in 2014, Ivanpah’s design includes a tower surrounded by solar reflectors that direct sunlight onto a boiler to produce steam, which powers a generator. Despite its ambitious start, the plant’s owners now want to shut it down 14 years before its planned retirement. The reason for this decision? Solar photovoltaic power has become significantly cheaper. Since Ivanpah’s approval, the cost of utility-scale solar panels has dropped by 82%.
The second breakthrough involves a Japanese company’s recent progress with perovskite solar cells, which could revolutionize solar technology. Named after a Russian mineralogist, perovskite cells were once celebrated for their potential to offer higher efficiency but were hindered by issues such as instability in weather conditions. Now, Sekusui Chemical, a Japanese plastics manufacturer, believes it has overcome these production challenges and aims to create a thin, flexible product that can be wrapped around buildings. Although the initial price of this product will be three times that of conventional solar, it represents a new possibility for solar applications. As with past solar innovations, the price is likely to decrease over time, making it more accessible. Additionally, the flexible nature of this solar material opens up new markets where rigid solar panels cannot be used.
For the fossil fuel industry, these technological advances in solar energy should serve as a wake-up call. The competition is developing more affordable and innovative products, while the fossil fuel industry has struggled to introduce significant new technologies. Fracking, hailed as a major breakthrough for oil and gas production, was first conceived in the 1860s, further developed in the 1940s, and became commonplace by the 1980s. Since then, there has been little groundbreaking innovation in comparison to the rapid advancements in solar energy.
Had the fossil fuel industry kept pace with solar innovations, we might have seen major breakthroughs like a car running on 200 mpg or an electric generator with zero emissions. The lack of progress in these areas suggests that the fossil fuel industry has not been trying to innovate at the same pace. This lack of innovation could pose a significant challenge in the future, as the competition continues to advance. Just as dinosaurs once underestimated the threat of small mammals, the fossil fuel industry may find itself outpaced by the growing solar sector.
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