OPEC+ is still undecided on its oil production plans for the second quarter of 2025, according to eight sources familiar with the matter who spoke to Reuters this week. The uncertainty stems from complications triggered by former President Trump, creating a more unpredictable outlook for the global oil market.
At the heart of the issue is OPEC+’s plan to increase oil production starting in April 2025—a decision the group typically makes a month in advance. Whether OPEC+ chooses to maintain current production levels or proceed with the planned increase will have significant consequences for global oil prices. However, not all OPEC+ members are aligned on the matter, according to the anonymous sources.
There are two distinct viewpoints within the group: Saudi Arabia, known for its cautious and conservative production approach, and the UAE, which is eager to increase production to match its available capacity.
This division has previously raised concerns about the unity of OPEC+, with rumors suggesting that the UAE could consider leaving the group if it doesn’t get a chance to expand its production in line with its capabilities.
Former President Trump has been outspoken about the need for OPEC to increase oil production, arguing it would lower prices and help end the Russia-Ukraine war. “You’ve got to bring down the oil price,” Trump said earlier this year at the World Economic Forum in Davos. “That will end that war. You could end that war.”
OPEC+ did not respond to Trump’s pressure at the time, and it doesn’t seem to be influencing their decision-making now. However, Trump’s recent policies—such as global tariffs, sanctions on Iran, Russia, and Venezuela, and his support for the oil industry over renewables—are adding complexity to OPEC+’s task of balancing supply with demand.
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