WTI crude oil remains uncertain around the $70 mark, with investors closely monitoring ongoing Russia-US talks regarding the war in Ukraine, now entering its fourth year. Any breakthrough in the negotiations could have significant implications for oil supply and price trends. Both nations have agreed to continue discussions, raising hopes for a possible ceasefire. If peace talks advance, Western countries might lift sanctions on Russia, which would boost Russian oil exports, adding more supply to the global market and putting downward pressure on crude oil prices.
Additionally, OPEC‘s upcoming decision on production levels will play a key role in shaping oil prices. The organization may delay its planned increase in oil supply, which could help support prices. However, if geopolitical tensions ease and sanctions are lifted, WTI crude oil may face further selling pressure.
In contrast, natural gas prices remain strong due to increased heating demand driven by extremely cold weather. If forecasts confirm a prolonged Arctic blast, supply concerns could drive prices even higher. However, a shift to milder temperatures could reduce demand, limiting any further price increases.
WTI Crude Oil (CL) Technical Analysis
The daily chart for WTI crude oil shows the price trading within a triangle pattern and under bearish pressure. A sharp price drop on Friday suggests further declines may be on the horizon. Support is strong around $68, and a break below this level could accelerate the downward trend.
On the 4-hour chart, WTI crude oil has been consolidating between $72.50 and $70. The overall price direction remains unclear. The RSI indicates that oil prices are oversold and are now rebounding higher. If prices break above $72.50, they could move toward $78.
Natural Gas (NG) Technical Analysis
Natural gas prices have been consolidating above $3. The breakout from a cup and handle pattern triggered a strong surge, and a subsequent correction back to $3 led to a strong rebound. Prices are in an uptrend and are likely to continue accelerating.
The rebound in natural gas prices from $3 has formed an inverted head and shoulders pattern, a strong bullish signal. A break above $4.70 could lead to a significant price move higher. However, the RSI shows that prices are currently overbought, and a short-term correction is expected. This correction presents a potential buying opportunity for natural gas.
US Dollar Analysis
The US dollar index has corrected lower from a strong resistance area. A break below 107 opens the door for further declines. However, the index is showing positive momentum on Monday, suggesting a potential rebound toward 107. Immediate support is expected at 105.20.
On the 4-hour chart, the US dollar index has broken below a green trendline, indicating bearish pressure. However, the formation of a falling wedge pattern suggests that the downward momentum may be easing, and a rebound could be on the way. A break above 107 would signal further bullish movement, potentially reaching 110.
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