Brent crude oil prices remain under pressure as both technical signals and market fundamentals suggest a potential for further declines. Market participants are grappling with various factors, leading to indecisiveness among both buyers and sellers.
US Imposes New Sanctions on Iran
On Monday, the U.S. announced new sanctions targeting individuals and companies, including the head of Iran’s national oil company. The sanctions aim at over 30 entities involved in facilitating Iran’s oil trade, which is a major source of revenue for the Iranian government, used to fund military operations in the region. However, market reactions were muted. Although there was a brief attempt to push prices higher, the rally quickly lost momentum, leaving oil prices in negative territory at the time of writing.
Iraq’s Kurdish Oil Exports Spark Supply Concerns
Reports indicate that the U.S. has pressured Iraq to resume exporting Kurdish oil through the halted pipeline, warning of potential sanctions similar to those imposed on Iran. Some fear this move could challenge Iraq’s adherence to OPEC+ production cuts. However, experts suggest that these exports may simply replace smuggled Kurdish oil with legitimate shipments, without significantly increasing overall supply. If this is the case, it may not have a large impact on oil prices.
Trump’s Tariffs Raise Demand Concerns
U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed that tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports will take effect on March 4, despite attempts by both countries to address U.S. concerns over border security and the opioid crisis. Experts warn that these tariffs could dampen global oil demand growth, further weighing on market sentiment.
Looking Ahead: Inventory Data and Geopolitical Developments
This week, market participants will closely watch inventory data. However, attention will likely remain on the implications of the tariffs, as well as ongoing developments surrounding a potential U.S.-led peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. These factors will continue to influence global oil markets.
Technical Analysis: Brent Struggles to Build Momentum
In the latest technical analysis, Brent crude oil continues to face significant resistance, particularly around the 100-day moving average, currently at $75.32. Recent attempts to push higher have been met with selling pressure, and today’s performance followed that trend.
A key factor contributing to this weakness was the U.S. consumer confidence report, which showed the largest decline in over three years this February. Rising inflation concerns, fueled by fears of tariffs increasing the cost of household goods, have shaken market sentiment. This, in turn, strengthened the U.S. dollar, further weighing on oil prices.
Brent crude is now approaching a swing low from December 2024, at $72.39, with support levels at $70.18 and the psychological $70.00 mark. A potential recovery is possible, but prices are likely to face strong resistance at $74.24 and the significant $75.00 level.
Related Topics:
- Today’s WTI Crude Oil Price Chart (February 24)
- USA EIA Predicts WTI Oil Prices Will Fall in 2025 and 2026
- Oil Prices Rise as OPEC+ Considers Supply Delay