Last week, U.S. President Donald Trump introduced the National Energy Dominance Council, aimed at boosting America’s energy security and reducing dependence on foreign sources. According to the White House, the Biden-Harris Administration has significantly slowed the pace of U.S. energy production. This includes imposing a federal oil leasing moratorium and withdrawing millions of acres from energy production. The Trump administration claims that, had their energy policies continued, the U.S. could have produced over two billion more barrels of oil, helping ease the financial burden of energy prices on American families.
For the second time, the Trump administration stressed the need for America to reduce its reliance on China’s critical minerals. This comes after China recently restricted the export of germanium, gallium, and antimony to the U.S. In response, one of Trump’s recent directives called for the Secretary of the Interior to consider updating the list of critical minerals, with a possible addition of uranium. Designating uranium as a critical mineral would open federal funding and expedite permits for domestic uranium projects, potentially revitalizing the U.S. uranium sector.
A key area of focus in Trump’s energy plan is the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) sector. In one of his first executive actions, Trump fast-tracked the LNG export license process, cutting approval times to one-sixth of those under the Biden administration, which has since reversed these reforms. Trump also streamlined drilling permits on federal lands, which led to a 300% increase in permit applications. His administration also reformed the New Source Review, which had penalized companies for repairing and upgrading coal power plants. Trump had previously warned Western Europe in 2017 to shift away from Russian energy and instead rely on American natural gas.
Trump has often pledged to push shale producers to increase oil output, even at the risk of companies “drilling themselves out of business.” However, it remains unclear how this goal will be achieved, as U.S. oil production is managed by independent companies rather than a state-run oil company. It seems more likely that the natural gas and LNG sectors will play a leading role in fulfilling Trump’s vision of energy independence.
Commodity analysts at Standard Chartered recently analyzed the potential direction of Trump’s energy policies. They highlighted a speech by Scott Bessent, a key figure nominated for Treasury Secretary, who discussed a potential strategy for the administration. Bessent recommended a focus on 3% economic growth, a 3% reduction in the budget deficit, and an additional 3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day from U.S. energy production by 2028. Standard Chartered clarified that Bessent’s plan likely refers to increasing total energy production by 3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d), not just crude oil.
With current U.S. oil and gas output at approximately 40.7 mboe/d, analysts estimate it would take less than two years to reach the 3 mboe/d increase. However, experts predict that natural gas will play a dominant role in achieving this target, as crude oil production growth faces increasing challenges.
Morgan Stanley has also forecasted strong growth for the U.S. natural gas market. With LNG exports rising and electricity demand increasing, the market is expected to enter a new growth phase. In addition, a report by Grid Strategies last year projected a significant rise in U.S. electricity demand over the next decade, driven by developments in artificial intelligence, clean energy manufacturing, and cryptocurrencies. For the first time in decades, the U.S. power sector anticipates a 15% increase in electricity demand, signaling a boom in the natural gas sector.
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