Natural gas prices for summer delivery in Europe have dropped significantly in recent days, as milder temperatures and ongoing peace talks in Ukraine ease market concerns.
The Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures, the key benchmark for European gas trading, fell by 3.7% for the March contract as of 12:30 p.m. in Amsterdam on Wednesday.
More notably, the price gap between summer 2025 natural gas and winter 2025/2026 futures has been shrinking steadily this week, approaching zero. This is seen as a positive development for both European policymakers and industries.
Typically, winter gas prices are higher than summer prices. However, since the start of 2025, colder temperatures and declining gas stocks in Europe have pushed up summer futures. Europe now faces a challenge of buying more gas during the summer months to replenish storage ahead of winter.
Europe is experiencing its first real winter with prolonged cold spells since the 2022 energy crisis. The region’s gas stockpiles have dropped to their lowest level for this time of year since the crisis. The summer premium on natural gas prices, which makes stockpiling more expensive, has worsened the situation. In response, utilities and market operators in key European countries, including Germany, have called for government assistance to help replenish gas reserves for the 2025/2026 winter.
As of February 24, gas storage levels across the EU were at 40% capacity, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe. This is significantly lower than the 60% storage capacity at the same time last year.
In addition, some companies and EU countries have advocated for easing refill targets for 2025/2026 to prevent a spike in gas prices.
However, milder weather in northwest Europe has slowed the depletion of gas inventories in recent days. Talks of peace in Ukraine have also contributed to the decline in commodity prices.
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