Turkmenistan is working to change its long-standing image as a secluded state, particularly in terms of its natural gas exports. Over the last few months, Ashgabat has made a series of deals that could, in the long run, significantly shift the European Union’s energy import patterns.
A key part of Turkmenistan’s strategy to diversify its gas exports is a swap agreement with Iran and Turkey. Under this deal, Turkmenistan is expected to supply Turkey with 1.3 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas by the end of 2025, with annual supplies set to increase to 2 bcm in the following years. The first deliveries began on March 1.
This Turkish deal is significant because it is the first of its kind where Turkmen gas flows westward along a route that bypasses Russia. Projections suggest that Turkmen gas exports to Turkey and the EU could reach 65 bcm over the next 25 years.
Political analyst Rauf Mammadov wrote that although the Turkish deal is still modest in volume, it is strategically important for Europe’s energy diversification. It could give European nations more leverage in future energy talks, especially if Russian gas supplies are reinstated.
Hikmet Eren, head of the EkoAvrasya Foundation in Ankara, said the Turkish-Turkmen agreement could shift the EU’s energy import focus. He emphasized that the deal is more than just a commercial agreement and has the potential to alter regional power dynamics.
In addition to the deal with Turkey, Turkmenistan is also increasing exports to neighboring countries such as Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan. The state-run Kazakh company QazaqGaz announced it would fast-track the expansion of a pipeline connecting the two countries, doubling the volume of Turkmen gas exports. QazaqGaz CEO Sanzhar Zharkeshov visited Ashgabat on February 28 to discuss joint exploration and production projects.
Both sides agreed to speed up their joint expert group to enhance cooperation, according to a statement from QazaqGaz.
Turkmenistan holds the world’s fifth-largest proven reserves of natural gas, but it is also known for having one of the world’s most repressive political systems. Until recently, Turkmenistan was hesitant to strike deals to send gas westward, with most of its exports going to Russia and China. Experts believe Turkmenistan’s reluctance to engage with Western companies was motivated by a desire to maintain control and limit foreign influence. One observer described Turkmenistan as “arguably the second most insular state in the world after North Korea.”
According to a report by the Bertelsmann Foundation in Germany, economic pressures are pushing Turkmenistan’s leadership to open up to international trade. However, the report emphasizes that this shift is not aimed at democratizing the country’s political system.
The country has been facing economic struggles for the past decade, with rising unemployment, a lack of affordable food, and decreasing purchasing power hurting many Turkmen citizens. The Bertelsmann report highlights that while Turkmenistan has the resources to turn things around, a lack of political will has hindered progress. The energy sector offers significant potential for revenue, but a lack of targeted economic policies has prevented sustainable growth.
It seems that Turkmen leaders have realized that deeper economic engagement with the outside world could help secure their regime’s longevity. Along with expanding gas export options, Ashgabat is seeking closer integration with East-West trade networks. The Bertelsmann report notes that Turkmenistan urgently needs financing for gas and industrial projects and views transit business as a potentially lucrative income source. The government is also keen to show its citizens that Turkmenistan’s policies have international significance.
Related Topics:
- Natural Gas Price Outlook: Faces Major Resistance After Climbing to $4.55
- Do Natural Gas Logs Need to Be Vented?
- Is Natural Gas Toxic to Inhale? A Detailed Exploration