As Europe faces a significant decline in natural gas production by 2050, Türkiye is emerging as a growing gas producer, with ambitious plans and recent discoveries, according to the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF).
In its “2050 Outlook” report, released on March 10, the GECF projected global natural gas production would reach 5.32 trillion cubic meters by 2050. The Middle East is expected to lead the increase, with an additional 461 billion cubic meters (121.78 trillion gallons), followed by Eurasia at 362 billion cubic meters. Africa, North America, the Asia-Pacific region, and Latin America are forecasted to see increases of 250 billion, 107 billion, 91 billion, and 87 billion cubic meters, respectively.
In stark contrast, Europe’s natural gas production is expected to decrease by 119 billion cubic meters. However, the report highlighted Türkiye’s growing role as a significant producer in the region.
Türkiye’s Ambitious Gas Production Plans
Türkiye has become one of the key contributors to global gas supply growth, alongside countries like Mozambique and Tanzania. The report describes Türkiye as an emerging natural gas producer, focused on expanding domestic production and reducing energy import costs.
Türkiye’s annual natural gas production increased sharply from 400 million cubic meters in 2022 to 1.3 billion cubic meters in 2023, largely due to the activation of the Sakarya Gas Field. By 2024, Türkiye’s production reached about 2.26 billion cubic meters, according to data from the Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EPDK).
The country aims to further boost production from the Sakarya Gas Field. The second phase of its development, expected to start in the latter half of the decade, has the potential to add 9 billion cubic meters of capacity. By 2050, Türkiye’s domestic natural gas production is projected to reach 17 billion cubic meters, thanks to continued developments at Sakarya and new discoveries in the South Akcakoca Basin, offshore Duzce province.
Gas Demand and Economic Growth
Türkiye is forecasted to be the only European country with substantial growth in natural gas demand. This rise is driven by strong economic growth, expanding gas transmission and distribution networks, new domestic discoveries, and increasing import opportunities.
The report indicates that Türkiye’s growing gas demand will be concentrated in power generation and industrial sectors, aligning with broader energy and economic development goals.
Türkiye: An Emerging Energy Hub
Türkiye’s well-developed natural gas infrastructure, including pipelines and liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities, is positioning the country as a critical energy hub between the Middle East, Russia, and Europe. The report emphasized that Türkiye is increasingly becoming a key player in the global energy market by acting as a transit center for major suppliers from these regions.
By 2050, Türkiye’s net natural gas imports are projected to reach 69 billion cubic meters. The country is also continuing to expand its offshore exploration and drilling capabilities with a fleet of four drilling vessels and two seismic research vessels. Recently, Türkiye added a floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) unit to its operations.
In addition to its pipeline infrastructure, Türkiye operates five LNG terminals, three of which have regasification capacity, and 14 entry points for natural gas. The country’s daily gas entry capacity currently stands at 455 million cubic meters.
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