The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has updated its West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 in its most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), released last week.
The EIA now expects the WTI spot price to average $70.68 per barrel in 2025 and $64.97 per barrel in 2026. In its previous STEO, published in February, the agency had forecasted the prices to be slightly lower, at $70.62 per barrel in 2025 and $62.46 per barrel in 2026.
For 2025, the EIA expects quarterly WTI prices to range from $71.25 per barrel in Q1 to $62.50 per barrel by Q4. Specifically, it forecasts $70.50 per barrel for Q2, and $71.50 per barrel for Q3. The price for Q4 2025 is projected at $69.52 per barrel. In early 2026, the price is expected to decrease, starting at $67.50 per barrel in Q1 and gradually falling through the year to $64.50 per barrel in Q3 and $62.50 per barrel in Q4.
Macquarie, in a report sent to Rigzone on March 12, projected a lower WTI price average of $64.75 per barrel for 2025 and $58.38 per barrel for 2026. The firm forecasts prices to be $70.00 per barrel in Q1 2025, dropping to $58.50 per barrel in Q1 2026, and reaching $61.50 per barrel in Q4 2026.
Meanwhile, Standard Chartered Bank, in a report from March 11, expects WTI prices to average $72 per barrel in Q1 2025 and rise to $79 per barrel by Q4 2025. For 2026, the bank predicts prices to average $82 per barrel, with further increases to $83 per barrel in 2027 and $89 per barrel in 2028.
J.P. Morgan, in a research note sent to Rigzone on March 7, has more conservative forecasts. It expects WTI to average $70 per barrel in Q1 2025, but it predicts a downward trend through 2026, with prices dropping to $53 per barrel by Q4 2026. Overall, J.P. Morgan projects the average price for 2025 to be $69 per barrel and $57 per barrel in 2026.
Lastly, BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, provided its outlook on March 14, estimating an average WTI price of $73 per barrel in 2025 and $72 per barrel in 2026.
These forecasts reflect differing views on global oil market conditions, with each agency adjusting its price projections based on their expectations for supply, demand, and geopolitical factors.
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