Kazakhstan has once again defied OPEC+ production targets, leading to the dismissal of its oil minister. The country exceeded its production quota by 300,000 barrels, reaching a record 1.767 million barrels per day in February, with help from Chevron.
This overproduction has angered OPEC+, particularly members who are sticking to their quotas. As a result, Kazakhstan’s oil minister, Almasadam Satkaliyev, was removed from his position this week, according to the presidential office. However, Satkaliyev has not left government entirely. He will now head Kazakhstan’s newly established atomic energy agency, despite the country having no nuclear power plants.
The move comes at a time when Kazakhstan’s government has been unsuccessfully pressuring U.S. and European oil companies to reduce production. Major players like Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Shell, operating in Kazakhstan’s Tengiz and Kashagan fields, typically focus on profits, shareholder interests, and contractual obligations rather than adhering to OPEC+ guidelines.
Although Kazakhstan has promised to cut production in March, April, and May to make up for its previous overproduction, there is little evidence that these reductions are taking place. OPEC+ is not pleased with the situation. Russia’s energy minister, Alexander Novak, has emphasized that members must stick to their quotas, and the group is even considering accelerating compensation cuts for offenders.
Kazakhstan is not the only country facing scrutiny. Iraq and Nigeria have also been quietly exceeding their production limits.
With Brent crude prices hovering around $70, OPEC+ is facing pressure. While Kazakhstan has promised further cuts, history suggests that when it comes to balancing market share with quota discipline, oil production often takes priority. OPEC+ now faces a difficult decision: whether to intervene or allow the situation to unravel.
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