Russia’s oil production in 2025 is expected to be slightly lower than in 2024, as the country adheres to the OPEC+ agreement to compensate for earlier overproduction, according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.
Novak stated that Russia is forecasting oil production to be between 515 million and 520 million tons this year, compared to 516 million tons in 2024, as reported by the Russian news agency TASS.
However, Russia’s oil processing levels are set to increase in 2025, compared to the previous year, Novak added. As Russia’s top oil official and its representative in OPEC+ talks, he also noted that the global oil market is currently stable, with prices holding steady.
Last week, Novak told Reuters that global oil demand is expected to rise in the coming months due to increased fuel consumption during the summer driving season. This expected rise in demand was one factor behind OPEC+’s decision to start increasing oil supply in April, Novak explained.
Earlier in the month, Novak indicated that OPEC+ could reverse the production increase if market imbalances arise. He emphasized that the group could adjust its strategy if necessary to stabilize the market.
OPEC+ plans to ease production cuts starting in April 2025, anticipating a seasonal rise in oil demand during the spring and summer months, Novak explained. He noted that restoring some supply is justified by the expected demand increase.
Despite this, OPEC+ will continue to monitor the market closely. If it detects an oversupply, Novak reiterated, the group is ready to adjust production levels accordingly.
In its latest Monthly Oil Market Report, OPEC maintained its forecast for strong oil demand growth in 2025 and 2026. The cartel predicts global oil demand will increase by 1.4 million barrels per day in both years.
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