Goldman Sachs has revised its crude oil price forecast, citing expectations of slower U.S. economic growth and increased supply from OPEC+.
In a recent note, the bank’s commodity analysts explained that although crude prices have dropped by $10 a barrel since mid-January, which exceeds their base-case expectations, they have lowered their December 2025 forecast for Brent crude by $5, now projecting a price of $71 per barrel. They also warned that risks to their forecast remain to the downside due to potential further tariff escalation and additional increases in OPEC+ production.
OPEC+, which includes major oil producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia, has signaled it may not continue increasing oil supply as planned. Earlier this month, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak mentioned that the group could reverse its decision to add supply as soon as May if prices continue to fall.
Next month, OPEC+ plans to add 138,000 barrels per day (bpd) to its collective output, ending the 2022 production cuts. However, analysts believe this increase could be temporary, given the volatility of oil prices and OPEC+’s sensitivity to market changes.
Goldman Sachs analysts also cited concerns over U.S. economic growth, which they believe will be hurt by President Trump’s tariff policies. Many experts argue that tariffs raise the cost of goods and commodities, ultimately slowing economic growth. As oil is the world’s most traded commodity, demand is expected to be impacted by the tariff dispute.
Additionally, Goldman Sachs projects that the oil market will remain oversupplied this year, reinforcing bearish market conditions. This outlook aligns with views from other major commodity traders like Gunvor and Vitol, as well as the International Energy Agency, despite recent calls from its chief for more investment in new oil and gas production.
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