Portugal is set to enter a key phase of wind farm repowering between 2030 and 2035, according to Aurora Energy Research’s latest report.
The country’s onshore wind power sector is a leader in the energy transition, contributing 27% to Portugal’s power mix in 2024. However, with one of Europe’s oldest wind fleets and the highest share of wind energy in its electricity mix, Portugal faces challenges in modernizing its fleet. The initial wave of wind farm development, which took place between 2005 and 2010, is set to reach the end of its lifespan by 2030. The oldest fleet, concentrated in the Lisbon region, has an average age of 18 years, with other older fleets located in the north and Tajo Valley.
Since 2020, the number of new greenfield projects has declined, highlighting the urgent need for repowering. The best wind sites have already been used, particularly in northern and central Portugal. However, Portugal’s streamlined permitting process facilitates repowering efforts, helping to increase grid capacity. Under current regulations, repowering and increasing wind farm capacity are considered minor changes, which allows for faster approval compared to Spain. This puts Portugal in a strong position to overcome regulatory hurdles, with wind generation expected to reach 35 TWh by 2030.
As Spain’s older wind farms undergo repowering earlier, the country will temporarily export surplus wind energy to Portugal. However, from 2030 to 2035, Portugal will likely see a surge in its own repowering efforts, reducing its reliance on imports from Spain. Eventually, as repowering progresses, Portugal’s wind energy production is expected to match Spain’s in terms of supply versus demand.
Aurora’s analysis projects that repowering will boost Portugal’s wind capacity by 20% by 2030, compared to a scenario without repowering. With the right regulatory support and improvements in forecasting technology, repowering is expected to significantly boost renewable energy production, reduce dependency on imports, and strengthen Portugal’s position as a leader in sustainable energy.
Repowering also offers financial benefits. Aurora’s Amun software suggests that repowering improves asset economics by increasing efficiency and saving capital costs, thanks to existing infrastructure. The software’s analysis of the Beira region shows that early repowering could lead to higher revenues and lower operating costs, despite a higher initial investment. For example, by 2026, capital expenditures (CAPEX) are projected to reach €1,440 per kW, but operational expenses (OPEX) after repowering are expected to drop to €39.90 per kW/year, a 200% reduction compared to pre-repowering costs in 2030. Despite higher initial CAPEX, Amun concludes that early repowering offers better financial returns, with a higher Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR), making it more profitable than developing new wind farms.
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