TOKYO: Oil prices edged lower on Monday, set for a slight quarterly decline despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s warning that he may impose secondary tariffs on Russian oil buyers if he believes Moscow is obstructing efforts to end the war in Ukraine.
Brent crude futures for June delivery fell by 17 cents, or 0.2%, to $72.59 per barrel as of 0028 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped 18 cents, or 0.3%, to $69.18 per barrel. Meanwhile, front-month Brent crude, set to expire later on Monday, inched up by 8 cents, or 0.1%, to $73.71 per barrel.
Both oil benchmarks settled lower on Friday but recorded their third consecutive weekly gain. However, they were on track to close the month nearly flat and register their first quarterly decline in two quarters.
Trump’s Tariff Threats
On Sunday, Trump expressed his frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin, stating he was “pissed off” and would consider imposing secondary tariffs of 25% to 50% on countries purchasing Russian oil. He indicated that these trade measures could take effect within a month if he perceives Moscow as blocking his peace efforts in Ukraine.
Trump’s strong stance highlights his mounting impatience over the lack of progress in ceasefire negotiations.
Market Reaction and OPEC+ Outlook
“Trump’s comments were expected to boost oil prices, but skepticism over their feasibility and concerns about the upcoming OPEC+ production increases in April are keeping investors cautious,” said Yuki Takashima, an economist at Nomura Securities.
Takashima projected that WTI would likely remain in the $65-$75 range as traders assess the impact of potential U.S. tariffs on oil supply and the global economy, alongside the production outlook from the U.S. and OPEC+.
OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies led by Russia, is set to begin phased monthly production increases in April. According to Reuters, the alliance is expected to continue raising output into May.
Saudi Arabia and Kurdish Oil Exports
Saudi Arabia, the world’s top oil exporter, may reduce crude prices for Asian buyers in May, reaching a three-month low due to declining benchmark prices, according to traders.
Meanwhile, negotiations to resume Kurdish oil exports via the Iraq-Turkey pipeline remain stalled. Two sources with direct knowledge of the discussions revealed that unresolved issues regarding payments and contracts are hindering progress. Talks, which began in late February, have so far failed to resolve the nearly two-year-long impasse that has blocked oil flows from Iraq’s Kurdistan region to Turkey’s Mediterranean port of Ceyhan.
Trump’s Warning to Iran
In addition to his stance on Russia, Trump also issued a warning to Iran on Sunday. He threatened Tehran with bombing and secondary tariffs if it failed to reach an agreement with Washington regarding its nuclear program.
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