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Can Iraq’s Gas Projects Withstand Trump’s Iran Crackdown?

by Krystal

Iraq’s Oil Ministry has started discussions with several international energy companies to accelerate the development of its key non-associated gas fields. This move follows a series of internal meetings at the ministry over the past two weeks, according to an exclusive source close to the Ministry. The source, who spoke to OilPrice.com last week, explained that Iraq is now facing the reality of losing its previous exemptions, which allowed the country to continue importing gas and electricity from Iran despite U.S. sanctions.

“Iraq can no longer rely on U.S. waivers to import Iranian energy. Now, the challenge is to find ways to increase domestic gas production to prevent frequent blackouts,” the source said. “There are promising options available, but each one has significant political implications, making the decisions in the coming weeks complicated.”

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For years, Iraq successfully navigated its relationship with Washington, using strategic diplomacy to secure temporary exemptions for Iranian energy imports. This arrangement began in 2018 after the U.S. withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), and continued each year with Iraq promising to reduce imports while securing funding and waivers from the U.S. However, after the U.S. ended all waivers on March 8, 2025, Iraq faces new challenges, as Iranian energy supplies account for around 40% of the country’s power needs.

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The U.S. State Department stated that its decision to end the waivers was part of a broader strategy to prevent Iran from gaining financial relief. The move is aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions, missile programs, and support for terrorist groups.

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Iraq’s government now finds itself in a difficult position. Despite importing substantial amounts of Iranian energy, the country still faces regular blackouts, which have sparked public protests in the past. The government understands that inaction is not an option, and new solutions are urgently needed to address energy shortages.

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In response, Iraq is looking to develop its own gas reserves, with potential support from international firms. The Oil Ministry is accelerating plans for two major non-associated gas fields: Akkas and Mansuriyah. Akkas has proven reserves of about 5.6 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of gas, with a projected output of 400 million standard cubic feet per day (mmscf/d). Mansuriyah holds around 4.5 Tcf of gas, expected to produce 300 mmscf/d at peak production.

Currently, Akkas is being developed by the Ukrainian firm Ukrezemresurs, while Mansuriyah is under a consortium led by China’s Jereh Group and Petro Iraq. However, any long-term development of these fields comes with significant geopolitical considerations for Iraq. The fields are strategically located near Iraq’s borders with Syria and Iran, with the region also home to sensitive cities such as Falluja, Ramadi, and Haditha.

As Iraq faces increasing pressure from both Western and Eastern powers, the geopolitical implications of energy development become even more complex. Since the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018, China and Russia have intensified efforts to increase their influence in Iraq, seeking to reduce Western presence in the region. This has raised concerns in Washington, which views Iraq as a critical battleground in the broader Middle East power struggle.

A senior source in Moscow shared with OilPrice.com that Iraq’s future could be shaped by its energy partnerships, with the potential to align more closely with Russia, China, and Iran. Meanwhile, a senior European Union (EU) official told OilPrice.com that Western policy aims to cut all links between Iraq and companies with ties to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) over the long term. The EU source noted that while Iraq may initially work with a mix of Western and Chinese firms, it could ultimately lean more toward Western companies as its energy needs grow.

Iraq’s approach to energy development will be pivotal not only for its own future but also for the balance of power in the Middle East. As the country works to secure its energy independence, it must navigate a complex web of international interests, with significant implications for both regional and global geopolitics.

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