China’s oil demand is set to rise by 1.1% this year, driven by stronger-than-expected economic growth and increasing demand for petrochemicals, according to China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC).
The state-owned giant’s Economics and Technology Research Institute (ETRI) forecasted that China’s oil consumption will reach 765 million metric tons in 2025. This is equivalent to approximately 15.36 million barrels per day, based on a conversion rate of 7.33 barrels per ton.
CNPC’s Vice President Wu Mouyuan noted that while demand for transportation fuels has likely peaked, there is significant growth potential for petrochemicals. Current consumption in China is about 60% of the levels seen in developed countries, suggesting room for further expansion.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) shares a similar outlook, observing that oil demand for fuels in China has plateaued. The IEA’s market analysts pointed out that as China’s economy shifts from manufacturing to a services-based model, and as electric vehicles become more common, petroleum fuel use in the country is unlikely to see substantial growth in the future.
CNPC also predicts that oil prices will likely remain between $65 and $75 per barrel in 2025, amid uncertainties surrounding global economic growth. Looking further ahead, the company expects oil prices to range from $60 to $70 per barrel from 2026 to 2030. However, CNPC highlighted that U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies could cause volatility in oil prices, particularly regarding trade and sanctions.
“The Trump factor remains the biggest uncertainty in the oil market,” said Wu, according to Reuters.
The direction of China’s economy will continue to play a crucial role in global oil market balances, as analysts keep a close eye on the country’s economic performance. Following a disappointing 2024, when China struggled to meet its GDP growth target, experts are particularly eager to see how the economy performs in 2025.
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