Russia has ordered the shutdown of two out of three moorings at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) main Black Sea export terminal, leading to a cap on CPC blend oil exports at 1 million barrels per day (bpd). This decision removes 700,000 bpd from the market. The order, effective from April 1, follows a safety inspection by Russia’s Federal Agency for Transport Supervision, which was triggered by a December 2024 oil spill in the Kerch Strait.
The CPC, a key oil pipeline that transports oil from northwest Kazakhstan to Russia’s Novorossiysk port, is jointly owned by Russia, with a 24% stake, and minority shareholders Chevron and ExxonMobil. The shutdown affects the SPM-1 and SPM-2 moorings, essential for oil loading operations at the terminal.
The Russian move is linked to the broader geopolitical tensions, including the failure of U.S. President Donald Trump’s attempt to mediate peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Analysts had predicted that limiting CPC exports would significantly reduce Kazakhstan’s oil shipments, with projections pointing to a cut of up to 50%. On Wednesday, the cap was confirmed, halving Kazakhstan’s crude oil exports from 1.4 million bpd to 700,000 bpd.
Industry experts have warned that Kazakhstan’s largest oil projects, operated by Western firms, may be forced to reduce production by the end of the week if the suspension remains in place. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan faces additional challenges in adhering to OPEC+ quotas. The country has regularly exceeded its production limits, as Western operators, who have invested billions to expand production, have resisted any efforts to scale back output.
In March, Kazakhstan reported record oil and gas condensate production of 8.95 million metric tons (2.17 million bpd), driven by increased output at the Tengiz oilfield and steady CPC exports. However, the latest developments could disrupt these gains and impact the country’s oil production and export strategy.
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