The United States is unlikely to challenge Australia’s stronghold on coal exports to China, despite former President Donald Trump’s renewed support for the US coal industry, leading analysts say.
Trump has called coal “beautiful, clean” and pledged to revive the struggling industry by declaring it a critical mineral and promoting its use for electricity generation. His administration issued a series of executive orders to support coal production and reduce environmental restrictions, aiming to boost competitiveness, particularly in Asian markets.
However, experts believe the move will have little effect on Australia’s coal exports to China. Rory Simington, principal analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said Trump’s actions are mainly focused on reviving domestic coal operations in the US, not increasing overseas exports.
Sabrin Chowdhury, global head of commodities at BMI, added that the global impact of Trump’s coal agenda would more likely be a drop in coal prices. “The market sentiment is already weak,” she said. “Coal prices are falling due to recession concerns and a generally lower outlook for commodities.”
Australia is unlikely to be hurt by this shift, Chowdhury noted, because its main export destinations—China, India, South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan—are different from those of the US. In the 2023–24 financial year, Australia exported $91.4 billion worth of coal globally, making coal its second-largest export to China after iron ore.
On April 3, top-quality thermal coal from New South Wales was priced at US$97.84 per tonne, according to GlobalCoal. That’s down from US$115.18 in January and far below the US$432 peak in mid-2022.
Simington also pointed out that US coal is unlikely to reach China in large volumes due to Beijing’s near-100% tariffs on American coal. “The US doesn’t import much coal,” he said. “Any extra demand caused by keeping more coal plants open at home will be met by domestic supply.”
Still, Trump’s executive orders—which seek to eliminate policies favoring green fuels over coal—gave a short-term boost to coal stocks in both New York and Australia. The orders also eased air pollution rules and allowed for more mining, lifting investor confidence.
American coal producers benefited from the move, especially after the post-2022 slowdown that followed a coal market boom caused by global supply disruptions and high demand.
Australian coal companies such as Whitehaven Coal, Coronado Coal, and New Hope Group saw modest gains. Their stock increases were mostly part of a broader market rally after Trump paused most of his planned tariffs, except a 125% levy on Chinese goods entering the US.
Macquarie analyst Rob Stein upgraded Coronado Coal to neutral with a 30¢ price target, citing improved value after recent sell-offs. Coronado shares rose 2% to 24¢ on Thursday.
Still, the benefits may be limited. Coronado, the only Australian coal firm with operations in the US, earns just 2% of its American revenue from thermal coal, according to Stein. “It could see some indirect gains from positive US market sentiment,” he noted.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs downgraded both Coronado and Whitehaven to neutral from buy, citing expectations of falling coal prices amid a shaky global economic outlook.
“As countries reduce coal use and production rises in China and India, prices are likely to drop,” Chowdhury said. “So even though the US policy won’t directly affect trade, it could further weaken market sentiment.”
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