OPEC has lowered its oil demand growth forecast for both 2025 and 2026, citing rising global economic uncertainty driven by President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs.
In its monthly oil market report released Monday, the oil cartel now expects global demand to increase by 1.3 million barrels per day in both years — a downward revision of 150,000 barrels per day from its earlier estimates.
Economic Growth Outlook Also Trimmed
OPEC also cut its global economic growth forecast, now projecting growth of 3% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. Both figures are 0.1 percentage point lower than the group’s previous projections.
“The global economy showed a steady growth trend at the beginning of the year,” OPEC said in the report. “However, recent trade-related dynamics have introduced higher uncertainty to the short-term global economic growth outlook.”
Tariffs Cast Shadow Over Trade and Oil Markets
President Trump’s administration has imposed a 145% tariff on goods from China — the world’s second-largest economy and its biggest crude oil importer. Most other countries now face a 10% tariff during a 90-day window meant for trade negotiations. Further tariffs targeting key sectors such as pharmaceuticals and semiconductors are reportedly under consideration.
OPEC+ to Increase Output Despite Lower Demand
Despite the weaker demand outlook, major producers in the broader OPEC+ alliance have agreed to ramp up oil production starting in May. The decision, combined with trade tensions, has added pressure to global oil markets.
Since Trump revealed his new tariff plan on April 2, crude oil futures have fallen roughly 13%, reflecting growing concerns over demand and potential market oversupply.