OPEC has revised down its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025, citing weaker first-quarter data and rising trade tensions caused by new U.S. tariffs.
In its latest monthly report, the oil producers’ group now expects oil demand to rise by 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) next year, down 150,000 bpd from its earlier estimate.
Trade Pressures and Economic Uncertainty Weigh on Outlook
OPEC also trimmed its global economic growth forecast for 2025 and 2026, pointing to increased uncertainty from shifting trade dynamics.
“The global economy showed a steady growth trend at the beginning of the year; however, recent trade-related dynamics have introduced higher uncertainty,” the report said.
Despite the downward adjustment, OPEC remains more optimistic than many in the industry, continuing to project steady long-term growth in oil use.
Long-Term Demand and Supply Forecasts Lowered
For 2026, OPEC sees demand rising by 1.28 million bpd, down from its previous forecast of 1.43 million bpd. It now expects total global oil demand to reach 105.05 million bpd in 2025 and 106.33 million bpd in 2026.
The group also cut its outlook for non-OPEC+ liquids production. It now forecasts output growth of 910,000 bpd in 2025 and 900,000 bpd in 2026—both figures are 100,000 bpd lower than earlier projections.
The U.S. was the main reason for the revision, with updated output forecasts of 400,000 bpd in 2025 and 380,000 bpd in 2026, compared to previous estimates of 450,000 and 460,000 bpd.
OPEC+ Output Drops in March, Set to Rise Soon
In March, OPEC+ production fell by 37,000 bpd to 41.02 million bpd, mainly due to cuts in Nigeria and Iraq. However, Kazakhstan raised its production by the same amount, again exceeding its agreed output limit of 1.468 million bpd. Its March output reached 1.852 million bpd.
OPEC+ is expected to increase production in April and May as it gradually eases back earlier output cuts aimed at balancing the market.