OPEC has lowered its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025, citing escalating trade tensions and weaker-than-expected economic data. The cartel now expects an increase of 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in global demand for 2025, down 150,000 bpd from its previous estimate. The 2026 demand forecast has also been revised downward to 1.28 million bpd.
The latest report from OPEC highlights that U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs have slowed economic activity, which in turn has led to a more cautious outlook on global oil consumption. OPEC also downgraded its global economic growth forecast, now predicting a 3% expansion for 2025, down from an earlier estimate of 3.1%.
In related news, eight OPEC+ countries recently announced they would phase out voluntary oil output cuts by increasing production by 411,000 bpd in May, equivalent to three months’ worth of increases. This move signals that Saudi Arabia may be willing to step back from its role as OPEC’s swing producer to take a firmer stance against countries that have not adhered to the production pact, particularly Kazakhstan, the UAE, and Iraq.
The revised demand forecasts have also weighed on oil prices, with Brent crude trading near $66 per barrel. Analysts suggest that the ongoing trade disputes could further impact market conditions and investor sentiment.
As of Monday, April 14, Brent crude was still trading under $65 per barrel, showing a modest increase of 0.05%. Meanwhile, U.S. crude (WTI) was down 0.24%, trading at $61.35 per barrel.
Traders are now looking ahead to the upcoming monthly oil market report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), due for release on Tuesday, for further insights into market dynamics.