U.S. crude oil production is projected to reach 13.45 million barrels per day (bpd) in the second quarter of 2025, according to the latest report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). This marks a slight increase compared to the 13.35 million bpd recorded in the first quarter of the year.
In detail, production from the Lower 48 states (excluding the Gulf of Mexico) is expected to make up 11.23 million bpd, while the Federal Gulf of Mexico will contribute 1.81 million bpd, and Alaska will provide 0.41 million bpd.
Comparing this to the same period last year, U.S. crude oil production has grown. In the first quarter of 2024, the total production averaged 13.35 million bpd, with 11.09 million bpd coming from the Lower 48 states, 1.82 million bpd from the Federal Gulf of Mexico, and 0.44 million bpd from Alaska.
Looking ahead, the EIA expects U.S. production to reach 13.51 million bpd in 2025 and 13.56 million bpd in 2026. In the third quarter of 2025, production is projected to hit 13.56 million bpd, with steady production in the following years, including a slight dip in the third quarter of 2026 to 13.46 million bpd.
The EIA also projected global crude oil production at 76.52 million bpd for Q2 2025, with the U.S. accounting for approximately 17.57% of the global total. For comparison, total world crude production in 2024 averaged 76.23 million bpd.
The EIA data also showed that the U.S. has surpassed the 13 million bpd mark on 17 separate occasions, with the highest monthly production recorded in December 2024 at 13.451 million bpd. For 2024, U.S. annual crude oil production averaged 13.209 million bpd, marking a record for the country.
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