Potential downside risk factors for the oil market

On June 12th, Yide Futures stated that based on the OPEC+ production reduction agreement and the mild recession scenario in Europe and the United States, it is expected that the supply gap in the oil market will increase to 1.5 million barrels per day in the second half of the year. 80 US dollars / barrel raised to 85 US dollars / barrel. In the follow-up, traders are advised to pay attention to the high-frequency data of the global economy and the process of Iranian oil returning to the market. The escalation of macro tail risks and the return of Iranian supply exceeding expectations are downside risk factors that the oil market may face.