On July 5, Morgan Stanley lowered its Brent crude price forecast to the fourth quarter of 2024 and expects Brent crude oil prices to reach $70 a barrel in 2023.
Morgan Stanley still expects crude oil inventories to decline in the third quarter, mainly driven by OPEC production cuts and positive seasonal factors, which will keep Brent crude oil prices in the mid-$70s/barrel.
In 2024, non-PEC supply growth is likely to outpace global demand growth, a trend that is likely to continue. Discounted supplies of crude oil from Russia, Venezuela and Iran unexpectedly increased.
However, Brent crude oil prices are expected to moderate to €70/bbl as the market focus shifts from inventory draws in the second half of 2023 to inventory builds in the first half of 2024.