Due to global population growth, rising living standards, and the associated increase in manufacturing between now and 2050, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) sees energy consumption growing faster than efficiency gains.
As a result of this increased consumption, the EIA projects that global energy-related CO2 emissions will increase through 2050.
“Non-fossil fuel resources, including nuclear and renewables, produce more energy through 2050, but in most of the IEO2023 cases we examined, this growth is not sufficient to reduce global energy-related CO2 emissions under current laws and regulations,” the EIA said Wednesday in its October 2023 International Energy Outlook.
The agency said it expects global power generation capacity to increase by 50 percent to 100 percent over the period, while electricity generation will increase by 30 percent to 76 percent, with zero-carbon technologies accounting for the construction of those increases.
Up to two-thirds of global electricity generation will come from a combination of renewables, led by solar and wind, and nuclear power by 2050, according to the EIA.
Coal and natural gas will account for 27-38% of the world’s power generation capacity, halving their share from last year, Reuters quoted the EIA’s DeCarolis as saying.
The EIA notes that concerns about energy security are accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels in some countries, but at the same time, those concerns are “driving an increase in the consumption of fossil fuels” in other countries.
The Middle East and North America are increasing natural gas production and exports to meet growing demand, while Western Europe and Asia remain natural gas importers in all scenarios.